Magically disappear

If you lost your job, you're filing for unemployment. Seeking the most you could get.

But, continue looking down at ppl in lower income brackets to make yourself feel better.

Why do people expect to get paid more to stay home and those with 6 figure income deserve a free handout? If you work hard and save you would not need handouts, I'm not receiving any BTW....I guess I'm biased....

@AZ

The republicans can't push the fed anymore. What are they going to ask the fed to do? Are they going to ask the fed to go to negative interest rates? The fed is the ammo to drive things. The financials, well, the lenders LOVE the fed with zero to near zero rates because the spread is so friggin high. I forget the exact wording of the old banker statement, something like borrow at 2, lend at 4, home by 6. They wanted to collect a 2 point spread. They were profitable and things worked. CC companies would lend at 8 to 12. Now what do you have? You have CC companies lend at 12 to 30 and borrow at 1 below prime and then sell the debt off guaranteeing a very nice spread and then pushing the risk out to someone else, also while collecting a fee for servicing the collection!

Yeah, this is going to be solved probably on Wednesday or Thursday.

I found an article going over the differences. The high level difference is $. The secondary is power. The third is where it's spent. The repubs want 1t and the dems 3t.

UI - Repubs said they would extend the 600 for ONE week, then go to their 200, then go to the 70% previous. I don't think they will ever get to the 70% as that is an administrative nightmare for each state. This is a slippery slope as if this looks to work, then they can claim that medicare block grants can work. So there is NO way that the dems will ever let them have a math formula. The dems want end of Jan and end of March for gig.

Stim checks - Dems want $1200 per family member up to $6000. Republicans want some weird way to get to $3400

Liability protection - republicans claim this is a red line in the sand. Dems say fuck you. Personally, I am for some protection, just not blanket protection. Publish some OSHA/CDC requirements and if the business meets them, it's documented and verifiable, then protect them. If they slip and fuck up, let the attorneys own them.

Schools - both want 100b to schools, just a diff mix of what types of schools

Testing, tracing, treatment - repubs want 16b for testing, 25b for hospitals. Dems want 75b for testing, tracing and isolation measures.

PPP - repubs second round for existing businesses under 300 employees whose rev dropped by 50%. Dems more flexibility in how they use loans.

State and Local govs - republicans NOTHING for the states or local other than loosening how they could spend the 150 already in the bill in March. Dems $1t to the states to help pay for first responders, healthcare workers and teachers.

Student loans - repubs fuck the debtors - dems give them 10k in relief. On a side note, I think there was a study that nearly 80% of all debtors owe a little more than 30k and under. That is why they shot for 30k in the first bill that was negotiated down to 10k by the dems.

If you look at the proposals, the repubs have been screaming OPEN THE SCHOOLS. The dems are saying, open the schools but let's get shit there to help them. The repubs are stuck in a timewarp thinking this is Dec 2018 and this does not exist.

As I sit back and watch this some more . . .

I still think that Pelosi is going to get the UI that she wants in time. It may not be the $600 but I don't think it will drop below $500.

I think that McConnell will get some form of liability protection. I don't think it will be retroactive like he wants, but I think he will get something. Consumer confidence needs to increase! For that, I think that Pelosi will get the student loan relief.

I think that they will sort the minor difference in the school's funding and the stim checks.

I think you will see 50b for testing. I think you will see 1/2 t for states. I think you will see Pelosi's PPP not be as loose, but the drop from 75% to around 50% will occur and that the 50% not on payroll has to be for equipment related to CV19 to help the business do business. Things like desks that are not benches, plexiglass, etc.

I'm probably going to regret this: "The radical Libsrtarians that have spent the entire post-wwii era attempting to convince everyone to hate government so that they could dismantle the social safety net and return to the Gilded Age can see it all slipping away as the pandemic has turned everyone into Keynesians."

WTF are you talking about?

Eroticamaxon... that is how TARP was passed, and how I expected stimulus to be passed back in March. My bad. I was wrong. I failed to account for how a crashing stock market can affect even the most hard-core fiscal hawks.

We may again need a 30% drop in stocks to motivate congress to break the deadlock.

The radical Libsrtarians that have spent the entire post-wwii era attempting to convince everyone to hate government so that they could dismantle the social safety net and return to the Gilded Age can see it all slipping away as the pandemic has turned everyone into Keynesians.

Erotica, "dem driven proposal. That voting block is powerful!" Then how come all the Dems did is ruin the USA?

It's interesting to watch the Republicans FINALLY find, buried deep, fiscal responsibility. It's amazing that they suddenly feel that adding to the deficit is bad.

The more that this goes on, the more I am going to push the win over to Pelosi. McConnell can not get the troops aligned. You may see this pass with 1 dem against, the rest for and then roughly 15-20 repubs voting against it. If that is what is needed, then this will be more of a dem driven proposal. That voting block is powerful!

@AZ

Have you seen some of the repubs are fighting to keep the $600? Got to love splinters when you are in power :)

What is interesting is that they gave the whitehouse 1.7b for a new FBI building in the bill!

You, Snowflakes, if the Democrats win you will curse that day. They hate your Country and are trying to destroy it. Bill Barr hearing today every Democrat would not let Barr answer any questions and get the issue answered. They all over talked Barr. THEY "EDITORIALISE" THEIR OPPINIONS. I have never met a Democrat, Liberal, Socialist, Bolshevik I can have a conversation with. They interrupt or run away. Remember you neighborhoods will become, "INSTANT SLUMS".

it is clear the Republican plan is to pretend the pandemic is over. Everyday stories of how we should not be paying people to stay home, how we need to get everyone back to work, schools must open regardless of risk.

Ignore the 1000 deaths a day and rising. Ignore the pandemic and it will just go away... the problem is too much testing... stop reporting data to the CDC because they publish it.

Republican means profits > lives

"My concern would be the lame duck session not doing anything in December as Republicans will want to hand off a shit economy to the Dems when they take the senate and White House in January."

Peyote? Mescaline? Good ol' windowpane acid?

It's 11pm, Sunday. There have been some 'leaks' as to the repub plan.

The more I think about this, the more I am convinced that this is negotiation. Here is what we have as lever points:

Technically, it's two weeks for the UI to not be paid.

The House goes on recess 7/31

The Senate goes on recess a week later.

The republicans have been trying to piece meal things. They have already offered to keep the $600 till the end of the year if they can piece meal it. Pelosi wants some blood.

Pelosi wants a win. McConnell wants a win. They are both ignoring the white house!

Pelosi wants 3t, McConnell wants 1t.

McConnell wants retroactive liability waivers.

McConnell wants lower UI and it to end 12/31.

Pelosi wants the same 600 and it to end 1/31 with 'gig' workers eligible until 3/2021.

McConnell and Pelosi want to extend rent and mortgage evictions.

Pelosi wants 10k for student loans.

McConnell wants 1200 under the same terms as before.

Pelosi wants 1200 under different terms as before. She wants it up to 6k per family. She wants 1200 per dependent.

Pelosi wants an unlimited use of PPP. McConnell wants tighter reigns.

Pelosi wants hazard pay - basically a 10k payment for the majority of essential workers in hazard areas.

Pelosi wants help with rent and mortgage.

McConnell doesn't give a fuck about rent and mortgage other than forbearance.

You can start to see the political ads now! :)

I still think this will end up more on Pelosi's side than not.

The UI they are fighting over time and amount. Perhaps McConnell will take time over amount. He may be out of office next time and this becomes someone else's problem.

I think that Pelosi will not get unlimited usage on the PPP. She may get 50% to payroll. That would be a win for Mitch.

I think that Mitch may do a modified stimulus for dependents. Instead of $1200 for each, he may let her have $500 or so per dependent.

I think the BIG fight will be student loans. I do not know how much she wants to fight over that. I know the "Warren's and AOC's" want that big fucking time. I think she can use that against the waivers for liability and hazard pay. Business' want that waiver BIG fucking time. That is their biggest demand. I think you may see some student loan relief.

I think that Pelosi will give in on the rent and mortgage payments and let them be forbearances. Then, later on, they will work on passing some legislation to not allow landlords to go after back rent that was in forbearance.

Interesting to watch this negotiation occur!!!!

You said it yourself . . .

Repubs want $1t.

It takes two to tango.

Dems want more.

Do you think the dems will give the repubs a win just before the election? I don't.

This will all be spin and we, as citizens will be in the middle of all of it.

Repubs will want to scream - we are fiscally sound, get your ass back to work, feed the economy.
The Repubs will also want to scream - we have empathy, we care about you!
Dems will want to scream - the repubs hate you, look, you are now evicted, foreclosed on, on the streets because they have no empathy.
The Dems will also want to scream - we have empathy, we care about you!

So the Dems will scream to get $3T out there. The repubs will fight for $1T. The repubs will have the ability to scream to their base that they tried, but their hands are tied because of that _____ Pelosi. That if they had the house as well, they would have been able to get it to $1T.

The Dems will get some of what they want. Remember, they want $3T and the repubs want $1T. Wanna bet it ends up real close to 2t?

I don't think it will be $300, but hey, I can be wrong here! I think that is what the Repubs want. They have already stated though that they would keep it at 600 until end of year right now. So . . .

----------

Break down the wishlists for both sides and you can see where it's going to end up.

Repubs want:
lower the payout
*Liability waivers**
More PPP
$1T

Dems want
More PPP
keep the payout
Student loan relief
$3T

Will the repubs give in for student loan relief for liability waivers? I think so.
So then the arguments are how much for PPP and how much for payouts.

One thing that I think you are missing, right now, the $600 is doing massive in helping a few industries: Mortgage and Credit Card. Those two financials are scared shitless of losing the $600 with unemployment this high. They realize that CC's and mortgages will not be paid. You will see a flood of BK's and foreclosures. The fact that financials are HUUUUUUUUGE contributors to campaigns is a reason why I think you will see the negotiation end at $500 a week.

Republicans want to keep it under $1T.

Drop bonus UI to $300 (minimum wage x 40) x 8 weeks x 30 million = $70 billion
$1200 x 200 million + $500 x 100 million = $300 billion
There is going to be $100 billion for PPE, Testing, CDC, etc.

That would leave about $500B for PPP extension.

I believe the current airline loans prevents them from laying anyone off until October, which no one is going to want the month before the election, so the above should be considered Aug_Sept, with another bill in mid-Sept for Oct-Nov with a 3rd round of checks, another UI extension and more cash for big business if they don't layoff before the election. Then after the Sept bill, everyone goes home for 6 weeks to campaign.

I highly doubt they will do ANY student loan forgiveness. Can of worms Reps have no interest in opening. No money for states or local gov either, which will hit those governments hard.

My concern would be the lame duck session not doing anything in December as Republicans will want to hand off a shit economy to the Dems when they take the senate and White House in January.

@AZ

I think you are going to see some very interesting 'negotiations.'

As most states work on a 2 week payment plan (well, at least I think they do!) RIght now, they until August 9th to get this resolved. I suspect it will.

The problem with being in power is that you actually have to lead and do things. It's a lot easier to be out of power and bitch that the other side sucks.

Here is my prediction:

They will probably do $500 a week until the end of the year.

You will see 10k in student debt wiped. This is down from the 50k that the dems wanted. I think this will be a sticking point!

You will see PPP extended (hopefully I can get it this fucking time!@#!#)

You will see a 2nd stim check. I actually think it will be higher this time. I think it will be $1500. I think Trump will want this as a means to show he cares and to 'buy' votes. I think it will be the same categories.

I think you will see some math that is a hiring bonus to get off of UI. However, the problem with that is the execution. So looking at the $500 a week till end of year. That is 5 months at 2k, so 10k. How do I incentivize the person to not sit on their ass until Jan 1? Does the number have to be higher than 10K? If so, how much higher? It gets very interesting trying to figure that out.

People think the UI thing is fucking welfare. If it is welfare, what is PPP? Paying a company's payroll? Isn't that communism? Isn't that picking winners and losers? Isn't that welfare?

Sure, it is easy to mock the orange buffoon for his "magically dissapear in April" comments, as well as his " I'll be right eventually " patheticness... but it is now clear that was the Republican Senators plan too.

Not going to extend the $600.

Make it 70% of what they earned, max. States would need months to implement that.

Fine, $200 to $400 for a couple months. No, we can't get people used to $1000 a month from government! We have to get kids back in school and people back to work... because covid magically disappeared???

Republicans are talking $1 trillion max for this stimulus. What is that, 1 month?