Illegals

Don't mind EA.

He has a pathological obsession with being right.

@DB

"Again, you show your ignorance about Minnesota. You don’t have to be a legal citizen to get a drivers license here. So where does a Social Security number fit in?"

I linked you the DMV of MN.

ON THE FUCKING PAGE it says that it is required to get a license.

Take up your argument with the state.

-----

"Again, you are ASSUMING all of those State agencies are cross reporting everything about registered voters, just so they can report to the pollsters."

Ok, now I am at the point in stating that you have a reading issue. What the fuck does pollsters have to do with anything? That has never been part of the topic. Now, what the fuck do you mean by cross reporting? Who is cross reporting?

Let me do my best ASCII version of a diagram.

The FEDS have SS data -> MN pulls from it to get RACE
-> CA pulls from it to get RACE
Now do the other states.

So now we have every state that has the RACE information in the DMV. It doesn't matter if the DMV application asks for it.

Now, seeing that you know Florida :)

FL --> Palm Beach County Voting - it pulls from the FL database to verify the person via the DL on the registration. It GETS RACE.
--> Broward County Voting - it does the same as Palm Beach.
--> Dade County Voting - it does as Palm Beach.

So now EVERY voting district knows YOUR race regardless if they ask for it or not.

Now let's walk through the voting process for a registered voter.

I go to vote in Lake Worth at the Community of Hope on Ohio Road. I walk in and give them my name. The little old lady looks up in the book to see my name and has me sign. She affixes the ballot number on the book, next to my signature. She hands me the ballot. I vote, and it is now put in the drop box. The drop box is delivered to the voting office. The box is opened and now gets scanned. The ballot NUMBER is scanned. The book information is scanned. Now the voting office in Lake Worth knows that I voted. Technically, they also know who I voted for. They keep that information to themselves. They care about numbers. Each county then pushes that numerical data up to the state. The state now knows the total number of voters as well as the RACE. Guess what the state does. It pushes it up to the feds. The feds report on it.

census. gov/topics/public-sector/voting.html - READ the first paragraph.

EROTICAMAZON

Again, you show your ignorance about Minnesota. You don’t have to be a legal citizen to get a drivers license here. So where does a Social Security number fit in?

Again, you are ASSUMING all of those State agencies are cross reporting everything about registered voters, just so they can report to the pollsters.

Thanks ea

@Flip

No.

The answer why was written in my response to TBR. But let me make it a lot less technical.

When you go to your doctor, they have to record your transaction with them and code it based upon the insurance company that you came in with. So if you have Blue Cross, they have to submit paperwork in the format that Blue Cross demands. If you show up with Aetna, they have to submit in that format. And by format, I generally mean coding for services. Considering that they are demanding payment, they will do what the payment peeps tell them.

From the insurance companies perspective, they have a one to many relationship. There is them, the one, and many providers. So they force the providers to standardize on their format.

Now what do you have for the scenario TBR is talking about? You have local school districts. In CA, they are not county based, they are region based (at least here) These districts have put in their own systems. That handles PUBLIC K-12. Then you have three college systems! You have the CC's, the CSU's and the UCs. Then you have the state (I assume that TBR is talking about a state education department) that wants to take all this data and aggregate it. There are 939 different school districts :) Good luck!

There is a product that I work with, I think TBR knows about it. It is called Mulesoft. It is known as an ETL tool. Just for them to say hello to you it is 50k. That tool is what is needed to get what TBR is talking about. And it will only partially solve it! ETL stands for extract, transact, load. It will let you take data from one system, manipulate it, then load it into another system. During that manipulation stage, you can convert years from 2 digit to 4 digit, you can do tons of stuff with the data, you do this so that you can meet all the criteria that is required by the system you are loading into! However, systems change and you need people to maintain this.

Interestingly, there is a company that very few know about and I'd say they are now one of the most powerful companies there is. It is a company called Plaid. What plaid does is work with financial institutions. Want to have quickbooks get your banking data from Bank of America? What sits in the middle is Plaid. They maintain connections between financial institutions systems! So when Chase changes their setup, Plaid fixes that endpoint so that Quickbooks still works. And no, it is not just quickbooks :) It is anything that needs to get into all financial institutions.

@tbr, thanks. Seems like that's info they should have already, no ?

@TBR

I started to really show my age and experience by describing databases as master/slave :)

So let's move to 2023 :) We will use parent -> child.

If you look at the hierarchy of data, isn't it generally the child querying the parent? It isn't the child populating the parent. SSA would be the big parent with 50 children (the states) and then each state would have it's own children (the counties.) Everyone is trying to get data from above. The state gets data and populates it's own database. Then the county queries the state and gets the data and populates its own database.

In your school scenario, it would be opposite direction. It would be the children trying to put data into the parent. The local database may have expanded data and have mapping issues with the parent. They may have different standards, then the parent. But if they pull, they are stuck with the dataset that the parent gives. So yes, I can see your birth to death scenario through the system being an issue. But in this demographic data being pulled down, I don't see that issue.

California wants to have a dataset that includes all of the student's educational experiences from preschool to university.

@tbr, "" California has been trying to establish a cradle to career longitudinal dataset for the last 30 years, and probably before that."".... Splain for us dummies please? What's that do or show ?

LOL.

One tiny population state.

California has been trying to establish a cradle to career longitudinal dataset for the last 30 years, and probably before that.

They are still trying to figure out the shape of the table.

Is it doable. Sure.

Will we have a usable dataset in the next 10 years? I doubt it.

@TBR

"So I seriously doubt that the computers at the board of elections can talk to the computers at the DMV, and neither can talk to the computers at SSA."

I think this is where we will disagree and here is why I am basing my statements on it :)

1. Think of e-verify. There is already an open portal to verify citizenship.

1. The DMV is asking for a SSN. Do you think they are just storing it and doing nothing with that field? They have to verify citizenship, so they are querying something. I doubt that they are querying Transunion or some credit agency. They have to be querying something external. If they have access to data, they are going to store it. You and I both know that storing data is cheap as fuck, getting it is expensive as fuck.

Then there is this :)

nces.ed. gov/programs/slds/pdf/using_dmv_records_to_access_ssns_webinar_nov2013.pdf

That was a very simple google search. Took all of 10 seconds. :)

And then, #3 on the list If I, as an individual, can give the government money to be able to query a database for people who are restricted to give grants to, then they have some stuff that is open for state and local governments.

EA, I get what you are trying to say in principal. But I doubt that is the way it actually happens.

In my experience, government does not have up to date systems. And even if they do, they seldom have the money for top notch programmers.

So I seriously doubt that the computers at the board of elections can talk to the computers at the DMV, and neither can talk to the computers at SSA.

"... depending on whether you are using Canfield, Spanos, or CASEY."

I use Jack Daniels. When Jack tells me to stay, I stay. When Jack says hit, I hit. Never argue with Jack or he'll kick yer ass.

@DB

Argh.

"And even your link to the Minnesota Secretary Of State website shows how you are inaccurately assuming the data. You are claiming they will track race by Social Security Number, but ONLY if you don't have a drivers license. So those who register with a drivers license and don't check off the race, are unknowns. Same as your Wisconsin example."

No!

I showed you that the YOUR state requires a SSN to apply for a license.

You can NOT opt out of race for a SS card.

So if your state queries for SSN as a lookup, guess what data they can get? Of course this does depend upon what access the API gives, but more than likely in this scenario, it is giving up DOB, location of birth, race. I am not sure they are grabbing parents names.

So now the MN DMV has the information you provided them on the DMV form and then they got the information that YOUR parents (more than likely) gave to the SS office. Thus, they now have your race. As that license is required to get a voters card, when the voter registration queries the DMV, again, according to what the API allows, they can get the race as well. You do not have to fill out the race on the DMV or the Voter's card. They have it already.

Again . . . you keep failing math.

I cannot decipher your rant about Jesse Ventura. Try writing it in English.

Ok, so I looked and I think I figured out wtf you are trying to say. In 98, Jesse Ventura ran and was given a low probablity of winning and he won. WTF is Governro Turnbuckle? Is that some sort of MN reference that the resot of the country doesn't know?

Congrats, the pollsters said that his opponent had a higher chance and he won. Now, let's talk about STATISTICS, not probabability. Is the data VALID? Did they get accurate data? See, you are assuming that they DID. You are assuming that when they called the households that the households told them who they were going to vote for and either lied or changed their mind. Thus, the massive disclaimers on poll data stating their sourcing and then what do they apply? A MARGIN OF ERROR.

Calling people 6 months post voting and then learning, ok, so what. That still has NOTHING TO DO WITH THE POINT I AM MAKING.

The point I have made is that PEOPLE VOTED. That is not up for a guess. That is KNOWN! Who they vote for is NOT relevant to the math equation. You keep trying to drag that in.

GOODENUFF

Yes, the burn card makes the difference in the number of cards left in the deck. And it can make one helluva difference.

If you are double counting a single deck, and the deck is +12 with 13 cards remaining, your decisions are different than if it is +12 with 14 cards remaining. 100% accuracy is absolutely necessary. 1 mistake in 100 hands can cost you the edge you have over the house, which is 3%-3.5%, depending on whether you are using Canfield, Spanos, or CASEY.

As I previously stated, they garner demographic data through exit polls.

They poll some people who are leaving the polling place and ask them questions.

They know through the voter rolls the demographics of the polling place, and they stratify the results based on that. For example, if the polling place has 50% Republicans, but the people they ask are only 25% Republican, each Republican person they ask will be worth 2 responses.

Yes, it is an estimate, and subject to error.

What you are describing with Ventura is called the Bradley Effect. Tom Bradley was the mayor of Los Angeles running for Governor. The polls before the election had him with a large lead over his opponent. He ended up losing the election. It is thought that people lied to the pollsters because they didn't want to be seen as racist (Bradley was black, his opponent white).

EROTICAMAZON

Case in point

1998 Jesse The Body with the 22" pythons was given a snowballs chance in hell of winning the Minnesota Governors race, right up to the night before the election. But what actually happened? We ended up with Governor Turnbuckle.

Six months later someone decides to do an in-depth study of the election gathering data according to your method of asking people who they voted for. According to that great statistical data, The good Governor garnered 70% of the vote, winning every demographic except old white guys.

And even your link to the Minnesota Secretary Of State website shows how you are inaccurately assuming the data. You are claiming they will track race by Social Security Number, but ONLY if you don't have a drivers license. So those who register with a drivers license and don't check off the race, are unknowns. Same as your Wisconsin example.

You are also assuming that the State will actually go through the paces of cross referencing every form of ID used to register, just so they can report the racial makeup of the voters. They are lazy as shit State workers who couldn't give a rats ass.

Are you so stubborn that you have to throw out useless statistics to support a weak argument?

Adams floats idea of New Yorkers housing migrants in ‘private residences’

nypost. com/2023/06/05/adams-wants-new-yorkers-to-house-migrants-in-private-residences/

“I don't know much about voter ID laws or what states are implementing what laws. That has nothing to do with the point I am trying to make.”

You’re the one who brought it up as to a reason why NY is not implementing voter ID laws.

So you’re basically saying you’re full of it?

Yeah, I know. "Burned a card" would have been the condensed version of what I wrote.

I'm kinda confused too, but... I think I've seen some casinos, after shuffling the deck, take the top card and place it on the bottom. Pretty sure face up, in such a way that you can't see that or the bottom card. Which, effectively makes a single 52 card deck game a 51 card game. I think it messes up the card counters. You just don't know if the buried an Ace, a 10 or a 3.

(Xdecks*52)-1=total cards available for play

Where X= number of decks used in a game.

But I'm not a casino expert...

@DB

Argh.

Are you really this stubborn and dense?

52 cards in a deck. Two cards to the player, two cards to the dealer. 52 - 2 - 2 = 48. Or are you saying that your burned a card? The illustration was NOT what would win the fucking hand. The illustration was how many ACES would be left and the probability that the next card drawn be an ace.

You are deflecting and changing the topic at hand. It is probability. Honestly, go read this: khanacademy. org/math/statistics-probability/probability-library

The law of large numbers take into consideration large datasets. It is how you get very accurate predictions of probability. THROWING the dice ONCE is an independent event. Each time that you roll the dice it is an independent event. To roll multiple 7s in a row are DEPENDENT events. It requires that the previous conditions are met.

I am sitting here trying to be really kind and explanatory. You really do not understand the math. You really do not understand the differences between statistics and probability. You do not understand margins of error, you do not understand confidence intervals. You sure as hell don't understand Monte Carlo simulations. You do not understand N. Go take that course, it's FREE.

So here I am trying to point out the simple things to you.

One, N was the population. That was taken from the census bureau. It doesn't break down by state. That is not relevant to the discussion. The discussion was that even with 100% of the eligble black voters voting D it would not impact the election. You still need whites. The math in the population showed that for every black person who was of age, there were 8 whites. Seeing that you basically need 50%+1, it is right there.

But as you keep digging deeper and deeper in your ignorance of the subject matter . . .

sos.state.mn. us/elections-voting/register-to-vote/ - OMB . . . there it is. You have to give them the last 4 digits of your SS number if you do not have a license. What do you think they are doing? They are looking up your SS information! They do not need all the digits. They now have your race. Now, let's say you have a license. Guess what is required to bring to get a license? Your SSN. dps.mn.gov/divisions/dvs/Pages/dvs-content-detail.aspx?pageID=554&pageTitle=Driver%27s%20License%20-%20Class%20D%20-%20New%20Driver%20-%20Over%20age%2021 - Again, now they have your race.

How much more are you going to keep going down this hole? Just submit. You are wrong. The only thing that you have stated that makes ANY sense is that, and this is still worded wrong, ""statistics" are based mostly on assumptions" That should be probability, not statistics. But, yes, there are assumptions. Again, read about the confidence interval. Read about margin of error. Case in point is the 2016 election. What did the pollsters predict? They stated they were X percent confident that Clinton would win. X was not 100%. X was greater than 50%. That means if the election were to happen 100 times, that X times it would go for Clinton and 100-X it would go for Trump. That is how things are done.

And . . . if I were making mistakes here, TBR would be on my ass about it :)

@db....your what if scenarios are not statistics....Statistics is the science concerned with developing and studying methods for collecting, analyzing, interpreting and presenting empirical data.

EROTICAMAZON

For someone who claims they will teach math to others, you certainly make a lot of mistakes.

First of all, if a dealer has dealt the first hand in Blackjack, there are 47 cards left in the deck, not 48. And the chances of another ace being the hole card or coming up next don't matter a bit. What does matter is the chances of getting a card that will help the players hand, and an ace isn't it. What the player really wants is 2 ten count cards to come up next, because they would split those Aces and have 2 hands of 21.

Secondly, it doesn't matter how many times in a row 7 is rolled in craps, the probability of throwing a 7 is always the same. Just like the probability of throwing any other combination.

Now let's look at your Wisconsin example.

Once again you are incorrectly assuming things. You say that "Most people are getting REAL ID licenses." So how many is "Most"? 51%? 61%? 91%?' In reality you don't have a clue as to how many in total, how many Blacks, how many Whites, or how many Indians. But the percentage will certainly affect the reported numbers that make up your "statistic". Especially since those who don't get the REAL ID won't have their race reported, making your "statistic" inaccurate. Add to that the claim that leftys opposing Voter ID laws love to make, saying that such laws are "racist", because minorities are less likely to have an ID, and the minorities end up being even MORE under reported, thereby making your "statistic" even less accurate.

And that is just one state. What about the other 49? In Minnesota marking your race on a Voter ID registration card is optional, and nobody involved in the voting process records the race of any voter.

Just admitting that your "statistics" are based mostly on assumptions would be much smarter than digging a deeper hole with every post.

"I am saying that there are at least some liberals/democratsthat believe in the social construct of race and that also believe that there are some races who are less capable of obtaining IDs because of their race."

Is this what you believe?

Do you believe that it's incapable or lack of need and/or desire to get a license or state ID?