Why do all comments disappear?

"Odds can be manipulated..."

Odds can be manipulated in many ways. For example, if you walk around holding a metal pole skyward during thunderstorms, you can definitely impact your personal odds of getting hit by lightning.

People have quoted general odds of dying from Covid, but that could be nothing close to a person's personal odds based on behavior, age, or health to name a few important variables.

In a lot of cases I see people quoting odds, like they really matter to them, when the real matter is being perceived that they are being forced to do something, even if that "something" is the best possible choice for them.

Subjective Probability is more likely what get's used here ;-)

"Subjective probability is a type of probability derived from an individual's personal judgment or own experience about whether a specific outcome is likely to occur. It contains no formal calculations and only reflects the subject's opinions and past experience rather than on data or computation."

In case anyone thinks I'm finger pointing, Yes, I am guilty of this at times too ;-) I do at least try to make an effort not to.

“ If there is one chance in a million that is too high for me”

Odds can be manipulated depending on the timeframe. For example, the odds of dying in a car crash in your lifetime are 1 in 107 according to the National Safety Council.

The odds of dying from a car crash in a given year is 1 in 8,393.

The odds of dying in a car crash this week? 1 in 436,000.

All much less than your one in a million threshold so I am assuming you no longer drive or ride in a car?

~Scamp

Wayne is another one of those who only believes what OAN or Breitbart tells them to believe. Anything else is fake news.

~Scamp

Re: Hospitals being overrun being fake news and "I am only aware of one report of that happening and it turned out to be a false report (fake news)."

The following wasn't even all of page 1 of more than 10 pages of results on this.

ww w.npr. org/2021/08/19/1029378744/hospital-beds-shortage-covid-coronavirus-states

ww w.wsj. com/articles/hospitals-swamped-with-delta-cases-struggle-to-care-for-critical-patients-11630661403

ww w.rollingstone. com/politics/politics-news/hospitals-covid-patients-1218323/

ww w.dispatch. com/story/news/coronavirus/2021/09/16/hospital-leaders-ers-urgent-cares-overrun-covid-patients/8349235002/

ww w.aamc. org/news-insights/worst-surge-we-ve-seen-some-hospitals-delta-hot-spots-close-breaking-point

ww w.cbsnews. com/video/idaho-hospitals-overrun-by-unvaccinated-covid-patients/

"What's the odds of someone who has been struck by lightning saying something ridiculous?"

100%

What's the odds of someone who has been struck by lightning saying something ridiculous?

"So the odds of me being struck by lightning in my lifetime are now 100%"

No, you are referring to the frequency. The frequency of your having been struck by lightning is 1.

Probability or "odds" is a measure of the likelihood of something happening, not the rate at which it has already happened.

But in any case, while I fully acknowledge the existence of abusive statistics, to simply dismiss the entire concept is folly, and your statement is frankly ridiculous.

"I understandindependent probability."

You obviously don't...

<p>"<span style="background-color:rgb(230, 230, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:open sans,sans-serif; font-size:14px">In this case though, people gambling are impacting more than themselves, as can be seen in places where the unvaccinated are the primary cause for the lack of available emergency medical care for everyone, among other things."</span></p>

<p><span style="background-color:rgb(230, 230, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:open sans,sans-serif; font-size:14px">I am only aware of one report of that happening and it turned out to be a false report (fake news).</span></p>

<p><a href="https://www.swinglifestyle.com/profile/lookup.cfm?usercode=18667678">vabeachcouple33</a>,</p>

<p>I understand <span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:tahoma,verdana,arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size:14px">independent probability. Nothing I said has anything to do with that. I've been struck by lightning. So the odds of me being struck by lightning in my lifetime are now 100%, since I've already been struck. </span></p>

""Odds" are just a tool that people use when they are trying to talk someone else into doing something or not doing something."

Odds are more than just that. I could care less if someone decides to gamble with their money knowing the odds are not in their favor. In this case though, people gambling are impacting more than themselves, as can be seen in places where the unvaccinated are the primary cause for the lack of available emergency medical care for everyone, among other things.

You don't seem to understand the concept of independent probability.

<p>"Odds" are just a tool that people use when they are trying to talk someone else into doing something or not doing something. After the fact, odds become meaningless (either the thing happened or it didn't). In Florida the odds of being hit by lightning are actually about 1 in 3000. A couple of years ago I was hit by lightning. So the odds of Wayne being hit by lightning are now 100%!</p>

In that case I think you meant MORE than a 1 in a million chance.

That was my point.

He said that he would not get the vaccine even with an only one in a million chamce of dying from the vaccine.

Lots of shit is more likely to happen to you...

Idiots. You are alive and well and in your 60s because you got, minimally, a smallpox vaccine and a polio vaccine.

Oh, plus I just had a thought and double checked with Google. There's something called the Birthday Effect, which is a weird statistical thing where there's a greater chance of dying within two weeks of your birthday than at any other time of the year. Here's the PubMed link to various studies: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9334087/

Right, but tbr said less than one in a million, which would your birthday would be about 1/300th the odds of any other day.

"...(your chances of) dying on your birthday have gotta be around 1 in 365."

You would think, but this is an example of one of the reasons that people have difficulty calculating odds. Births and deaths are not distributed equally, therefore it could be more, it could be less, but it isn't 1/365. Consult a mathematician who has an interest in this for exact numbers.

Not to minimize your point, tbr, but your chances of having twins are about 1 in 81, and dying on your birthday have gotta be around 1 in 365.

If you are 65 years old with a heart condition, you are far far FAR more likely than 1 in a million dying of COVID in the event you get it while not vaccinated.

Every time I'm tempted to engage in good faith discussion of this issue, I remind myself that people believe a lot of incredibly stupid shit and they continue to do so no matter how counter factual their beliefs are. This particular basket of dumbassery is right up there with Flat Earthers, who I really thought were in a class of their own. But no.

Stripped of most of my profound disapproval, we have a neocortex that functions analytically instead of emotionally when analyzing risk, but it actually takes mental discipline to override more primitive decision systems. As a result, you get people who won't get a vaccine for reasons that are not underpinned by actual reason. As a group, we tend to vastly overestimate the risk of things we don't understand or that feel uncontrollable and then argue that our emotionally based errors of risk assessment are actually correct.

There's no winning that argument, because emotion trumps facts and logic. Even more so when the emotionally based decision making is couched as just being sensible or whatever.

"If there is one chance in a million that is too high for me, "

What I was really saying is that you are in a unique position to help further the understanding of Covid and possible negative vaccine outcomes. However, since you're specifying odds, there's probably a better chance that you will get Covid and have a bad outcome than there is of having a bad outcome from the Covid vaccine. Yep, your choice, but if you're making it based on odds, you're betting on the relative long shot. Again, "bad outcome" doesn't mean you have to die, before you start quoting Covid death rates.

Just like getting struck by lightning, there are things people can do to alter the overall odds, and some essentionally want to be that person holding a large metal rod skyward during a thunderstorm, preferably around other people, to prove their point ;-)

People have no concept of relative risk...

Things with less than a million in one chance of happening...

Struck by lightning

Winning an Olympic medal

Having twins

Being killed by a meteorite

Finding a four leaf clover

Getting audited by the IRS

Getting your car stolen

Dying in a car crash

Dying in a hurricane

Your house burning down

Dying if you are stung by an insect

Dying on your birthday

Dying in a mass shooting