"Remember that it takes a 25% increase to get back to baseline after a 20% decline."
But corporate profits were only down 5% 4th quarter last year.
"(a return to warehousing versus just-in -time)"
This is kinda the crux of the matter, isn't it?
@TBR
Good question. Taking those figures at face value I would question 1) the sustainability given that much of the "increase" is actually continued rebound from the Covid downturn. Remember that it takes a 25% increase to get back to baseline after a 20% decline. 2) The producer price index is also on a tear and will catch up to sales which are based on earlier, lower cost basis 3) Most of the fourth quarter numbers were based on increases in inventory. The reason appears to be twofold. First people buying more than they need out of fear of supply chain problems making things unacceptably hard to get (a return to warehousing versus just-in -time) and, second, a significant drop in sales in the fourth quarter. The increase in inventories is clearly unsustainable.
I wonder about the correlation between inflation and the increase in corporate profits.
While the fourth quarter is not all in the books, S & P fourth quarter earnings are up 22%, and 50% for the year...
They don't really make much of anything.
They enter into agreements with producers to slap their name on the product.
I'm familiar with the brand name, which I always assumed was taken from the Washington town, but always just considered it synonymous with "Costco". They also make some pretty nice wines. The brand scale doesn't surprise me. Years ago there was a description of the volume of their number one (number two?) product, toilet paper, in terms of how many times around the moon and the earth a year's sales supply would stretch. Likewise there was an impressive statistic on how many hundreds of annual tractor trailer trips the company saved by changing the shape of their nut containers from round to square.
That's a lot of product.
Shouldn't admit it but I have a fancy schmancy engraved, gold inlaid, over/under shotgun. I only bought it because the gun shop had it ridiculously underpriced. I don't know why, it was brand new, not a scratch on it, had the factory box...
It's my favorite gun- to look at. It's too nice to use.
New York (CNN Business)Costco's Kirkland Signature brand is perhaps America's weirdest private label. You can put Kirkland Signature AA batteries alongside Kirkland Signature cashews in your shopping cart.
It's also shockingly successful.
Kirkland raked in $58 billion in sales during Costco's latest fiscal year, making up around a quarter of the company's total revenue. Kirkland is America's biggest consumer packaged goods' brand measured by sales. It's larger than Hershey (HSY), Campbell Soup (CPB) or Kellogg (K).
That's about identical to the local hunting economic demographic. Only skewed hard to beat up 4WD diesel pickups with "Make welfare as hard to get as a building permit" bumper stickers. And instead of LL bean, the vests are from Cabella's and are worn over camo. Also more of a Burbon and Schmidt crowd.
I will admit that my favorite shotgun is Italian and engraved (it's a Beretta Silver Pigeon 20 gage) but no gold.
Ruffed grouse are a big draw near my cabin when they are at or near the top of their population cycle. You'll see all kinds of vehicles with plates from the east- NY, NJ, PA etc. parked along the logging and back roads during grouse season. Expensive vehicles- most with trailers or dog crates in the back of the Escalades, Navigators, Hummers, Land Rovers... Hunters wearing the latest LL Bean outfit and carrying engraved/gold inlaid shotguns. The liquor stores/bars stock the shelves with 12 YO scotch and move the Panther Piss to the back room.
They spend a lot so the local businesses love them. The locals laugh at their fancy clothes/equipment.
On the bright side, recreationally if not economically, these forests are excellent ruffed grouse habitat.
Pinus Strobus is 'monoecious" so, yes should self-pollinate. According to the literature they don't reproduce until later in their lives (30 years or 61cm diameter are cited).
On the economic front, 30-40 years is considered a commercial rotation in Western Washington for Douglas Fir. The traditional USFS approach used to be to grow nice big "juicy" saw logs. Typically stand age was considered optimal once the yield curve, in terms of volume for a stand, started to flatten significantly. Perhaps 60-80 years on most sites for Douglas Fir. Once volume rather than timber quality became paramount (think pulp wood or chips for oriented strand board) the more ideal time of harvest would be at the inflection of the yield curve (first derivative of the yield function). That is when the rate of increase turns from positive to negative. This is more likely to occur in 30-35 years. An economist would also tell you that you can equate the integral of the yield curve at a given time to the integral of a given rate of return function (percent yield) in order to select an optimal harvest date.
Back in the 1990s after one of the USDA dairy buyouts, there was a lot of vacant pasture land previously used for sileage and feed corn production for the dairy industry (particularly in the county where GGMM lives and surrounding counties). There was a startup enterprise that contracted to plant these areas to Black Cottonwood (Populus tricocarpa) on a short rotation of about 20 years. The leases provided for several thousand dollars per year annual income along with a promise of post harvest clearing to pre planted conditions. Worked just long enough - about 7 years - for the company to plant tens of thousands of acres and then promptly go belly up when the trees were 30-40 feet tall and the pulp market tanked. Now the trees in some of these stands are quite large. I'm guessing the cost of clearing the stumps would be extensive after logging. Other stands saw a lot of blow down at younger ages and were a real mess.
I don't understand why there's just the lone white pine- I was told pines self pollinate. There are pine cones around- maybe it's too old...? I know that's the problem with the oaks on the land- they apparently only reproduce for a certain period during their life.
I have stands of red (Norway) pines and a few jack pines. Keep it maintained/cleared around the red pines bases though- saplings start but I mow 'em down. I prune/trim the lower branches- makes it like a park- an avenue. It's really cool. So I know some pines don't need fire...
There are a few oaks, a few birch but mainly aspen (poplar? )I inherited the land when my dad passed away 3 years ago. He had someone clear cut the poplar for pulp wood. I think that was 25-30 years ago. I was "just a kid" of 20 something. It has since grown back with a vengeance. I tried to convince him to have the cut areas planted with other trees. Hell, the state would supply some seedlings for free- and he had my brother and I to do the dirty work. He refused saying he'd never get any enjoyment/use from them.
Well, fuck, I was as tall or taller than some red pines that were there when he first bought the place- those trees are now 30 maybe some as tall as 50. The aspen/poplar are like weeds in the area that was logged. Someone told me that they're just one big growth- all of them are interconnected at the roots and are basically just one big tree with multiple shoots...? I dunno, I just know the ruffed grouse like those areas. The other critters are like honey badgers- they don't seem to give a fuck where they hang out.
An old timer from the area (deceased now) told me that in WW2 there was a POW camp somewhere further to the south- maybe 20 miles...? The German POWs used to maintain the forests because all the local men were overseas. Apparently they'd let the POWs loose during the day to work the forest and they'd came back at night for dinner and a warm bed. They used to be able to get lunch in some local diner. I saw something on PBS about that a few years ago.
Apparently they didn't try to escape because Canada was even colder, it was a long walk to Germany and there was a big salt pond to cross. I was told that after the war some of those POWs stayed.
Oh yeah- Economics= slave labor.
@Goodenuff
Well Minnesota wasn't previously on the tour plan but that's pretty tempting...Probably a summer trip though because, you know...shrinkage.
What you are referring to are called "Serotinous cones". These are glued shut by pitch to the point where they require a relatively hot fire to open them. The classic example of this is Pinus contorta (Lodgepole Pine) which is an early secessional species after burns throughout the mountain West. It grows back very thickly after fires in what we call "dog hair" stands. I looked into Pinus strobus ecology. No mention of serotinous cones. It has medium fire tolerance due to bark thickness (more like Pinus ponderosa in our area). It apparently colonizes open spaces like burns relatively well, particularly burned Aspen forests. It's considered a mid secessional species and is succeeded by spruce and cedar in rotations after about 360 years. That's sort of similar to Douglas Fir in my area. Given freedom from catastrophic fires or storms, Douglas Firs are ultimately succeeded by Western Hemlock on most sites.
Economically, feller bunchers are hard to beat where terrain allows. In the Northwest, generally that's not the case so chainsaws and cable logging systems still predominate. I started out in Forestry as a young man. It became obvious to me very quickly that, though the loggers loved to blame environmentalists, the Spotted Owl, whatever, for their problems, the fundamental issue was technology and economics. A slowly shrinking land base (mostly from urbanization and recreation homes) coupled with increasing productivity per worker hour through innovation - like every other industry, equals less people working in the woods. I exited the industry.
LOL I recall talking about pictures long ago elsewhere in the SLS Forum... Once upon a time we had an issue with someone "borrowing" pictures of Mrs. G (not on SLS) so we just don't put much for pictures out there anymore. Mrs. G doesn't even want 1 of her in public photos anymore. If ya wanna see 8x10 color glossies, ya gotta come visit.
Anyway, I'm not an expert on trees, but I've been told another issue with white pines is they need fires to reproduce. The cones apparently need the heat of a fire to open and germinate. I'm not sure about that but from one document I found: "Without fire or other openings, white pines fare poorly and are replaced by other species that can regenerate beneath the pine canopy."
Forests need fires but people don't want fires. When an area is cut or cleared for whatever reason, man tends to replant what is in their best interest- usually economics driven. Trees that grow faster and can then be harvested and sold for lumber or pulp sooner tend to be the ones planted. Old growth forests are rare.
Like in parts of WA (and elsewhere), forestry/lumber is a big industry near my property. The lumberjacks don't use chain saws (much)- feller bunchers, skidders and tree harvesters are the norm. Process in 1 day what Paul Bunyan and Babe did in a month. My chain saws are for wind/storm damage and to clear an occasional forest road.
It's Economics...
@ Goodenuff
Well that's a tease. Checked your profile but didn't see those pics...
Off topic but interesting. You are no doubt talking about Pinus strobus, or Eastern White Pine. Pinus monticola or Western White Pine is also an amazing tree. Its bark looks like alligator hide. Tall and straight with sparse limbs. Sadly these things were almost wiped out within Washington's portion of their range by white pine blister rust when I was a teenager. I remember seeing lots of spectacular dead snags in the eighties. These days people don't seem to notice that they are long gone from places named "White Pine Lake", "White Pine Campground", "White Pine Basin", etc. Equally sadly, along with climate change, the blister rust is starting to hammer the Whitebark Pines as well (Pinus albicaulis). That's a high alpine resident that was previously well out of the range of the Ribes species that are an intermediate host.
Not economic, but I looked up the world record white pine and it said it had a circumference of 16.8', or just over 201".
"With my trusty Husqvarna I could come take any trees down for cheap"
Any tree?
Not that I would want you to, but I have a white pine on one of my properties with a diameter of close to 4'. Some day I'm gonna measure it because the "Big Tree Champion" white pine on the books in MN has a circumference of 133", making it's diameter approximately 42". That was recorded in 1974, not sure what it is today.
About 20 miles away is a state Scientific and Natural Area that has old growth red and white pines. It's called The Lost 40 because of a surveying error in the 1800's- the area was missed by the lumber barons and never logged off. This white pine is easily larger than most, if not all of the white pines there, which are over 200 years old.
Just to keep All Things Economic- the tree would be worth a shit ton of money in today's market as lumber, but the pics of Mrs. G (nude and semi nude) posing with my trusty chainsaw in front of it are absolutely priceless.
"I'm a lumberjill and I like sex..."
They're even more fun if you wear a scary mask when you fire it up.
Chain saws were invented to keep middle aged men's lives exciting. Unlike explosives, you don't need a special license to use them around your property, but they still include that special sort of anticipation.
I am fairly handy with a chainsaw too, but also smart enough to know what trees I can handle and which ones I need a professional for. I have some that are bordered on 2 sides by power lines. There could be worse things than just hitting the house with a tree.
“ FWIW - Not sure if people have looked at the cost of taking a good sized tree down, but that could significantly add to the costs for switching to solar for some people”
With my trusty Husqvarna I could come take any trees down for cheap, unless I miscalculate the fall direction; then it might become quite expensive.
The key with a carbon tax is two fold as I see it. One it actually assigns a cost to carbon specifically, which does not exist at present. There is no way for a market to recognize, let alone regulate, something (i.e. environmental degradation) that doesn't have a cost. Second, in the absence of market regulation, the only alternative (to doing nothing) is some sort of government regulation. Creating a broad and relatively simple regulation to tax carbon would be bound to be simpler than the mish mash of individual regulations that are continuing to spring up currently with various winners and losers and plenty of pushback.
The last I looked, Mayhem, there had been some advances in the voltage regulators of solar panels that reduce the voltage drop from the entire array when some panels are shaded by trees. I have the same issue. As for electric vehicles, these are a natural and necessary part of a smart grid that includes photovoltaic arrays. Most vehicles are stationary 90% of the time, so they can provide a perfect storage option to support a grid with lighter gage conductors. The relatively low voltage drop for a large number of such batteries can be equalized by net metering. That is, any back feed to the grid would come off your electric bill.
Perhaps with the cost of electricity going up and the tech price coming down and getting better on solar, it's time to take another look. I haven't in a while, but we don't have a great site without taking down a number of trees, and when I did the math, I was essentially exchanging my electric bill for a loan on the equipment needed.
At the time I did the rough analysis, the difference between my typical electric bill and the loan payment meant that, somewhere in the 12-15 year range was when the system would pay for itself. The panels typically lasted 20 years (when I looked), so you'd be getting mostly free power from years 16-20 or so.
Curious to see what others are seeing for this these days. If the carbon tax ever became a thing, that could add to the cost of the panels, because my understanding is that they are not particularly environmentally friendly to make.
FWIW - Not sure if people have looked at the cost of taking a good sized tree down, but that could significantly add to the costs for switching to solar for some people.
Another economic related factor is that it's not uncommon to see people with electric cars have solar to at least assist with the charging. To my knowledge, electric cars still do not pay a road tax, which is built into the gasoline tax. Unless they figure out how to do that, we'll have cleaner air but deteriorating road infrastructure as more people switch to all electric.
@Mayhem,
A bit off topic but, I remember being immensely impressed by how light and comfortable the lower floors of the houses of Augustus and Livia in Rome were. They're sited in the side of the Palatine hill in Rome and were built over two thousand years ago. Strikingly more comfortable than so many larger and more opulent palaces built over the ensuing centuries. They definitely got both the comfort of earth sheltering and the importance of aspect and window design as far as ambient light.
Probably the most energy efficient homes I've ever seen have been earth sheltered homes. The structure sits below the frost line where the ground keeps things at a fairly constant 50-55F year round.
Some people feel like it would be like living in a basement or cave, but it is well insulated between the (usually concrete) structure and the ground, and isn't unusual for it to be only 1 room deep with mostly glass on one side. Most rooms of traditional houses have windows on only one wall, so from the inside of an earth sheltered home it should feel no different.
From a maintenance perspective, it can't get much easier. The roof (dirt/grass) lasts the life of the house and if you use vinyl or vinyl clad wood windows/doors, there is very little to no exterior maintenance.
Ideally a site would be a south facing hill to build into, but a structure can be backfilled. I worked with someone that built one near us long ago, but the zoning board made him put a traditional roof on it, which negated a large amount of the benefit. They are not common in NH, which probably has to do with the amount of rocks/boulders/ledge we have.
