All Things Economic

tbrmskssVeteran
San Diego, CA, Us

When I started working for the state, he retirement plan was 2 at 55 (2% of your annual salary times years of service eligible to start collecting at 55).

They have since changed the law to 2 at 62. However, if you wait until 67 to collect, you get 2.5%.

mayhem8Veteran
Auburn, NH, Us

GGMM - You're right as usual. I went back and looked and full SS age back then and it was 65. However, my father worked in civil service and I just assumed he could retire at 55 due to Social Security, but that obviously was not the case. I should have known better but just didn't really think of it till now.

EA - Since Covid, a larger # of people can work remotely. Of course not everyone has that sort of job, but I do and a stable 25Gb internet connection is adequate for my needs. I could live anywhere where that is available. An aunt/uncle lived in a high-rise on the Honolulu and Waikiki line. I could live there if I wanted to and the housing/utilities were actually fairly reasonable not all that long ago. Nice place to visit, but don't want to live there.

I think it took Covid to prove to companies that they could get just as much and sometimes more out of their employees by them working from home. For many, there is no going back. There are some that won't even consider a job where they have to travel into the office on a daily basis, or even a couple times a week for that matter. These people can live anywhere that they can get a decent internet connection. With 5G ever expanding, the # of those places is expanding.

We live where we do now because we love the location. There are some beautiful parts of the country we've not yet seen, like parts of Colorado and Utah, but we have visited most states and so far, we still like NH. Winters can be a pain and we may become snow birds at some point, but we will likely always call NH home. Our overall tax burden is not too bad, so it can be a decent place to retire to. Main drawback relative to some other states is high property taxes, but we have no state income or sales tax. Just the usual hospitality taxes.

Richards, TX

Something that hurts people here in Texas and I suspect around the US . Is a housing shortage . We have so many illegal immigrants on the streets the government rents houses for them . These landlords get top dollar for this property . My friend owns a failing wedding resort . He has a type of hotel where the out of town party goers can stay . Complete with refrigerators and micro waves . Now he is on a government program where he gets 314.00
A day to let illegal immigrants live there. He owns 26 houses in Houston , he says none of these are occupied by the illegal immigrants but he said if can he will. Where do our kids or grand kids go ?

RonKathyVeteran
Woodstock, GA, Us

Florida.. they are selling you and guarantee it.. we lived in Florida and retired from a city and state job...with a six figure income that allows us to do what we do daily, and yes we worked for it..even contributed some, But THEY DELIVER!!!!

NOT many places can compare with Florida's retirement system.. years ago yes.. but now definitely not and we have compared to many in different states.

Santa Barbara, CA, Us

@Mayhem

I think your statement is accurate, but not completely for the reasons you think.

My mother was born in 1945. The population of the US was 139mm. Today, it is over 330mm. As an example, Miami's population then was 175k. Today, that population is over 6mm. Granted that was city versus metro, but that solidifies my point. There was no metro per se then.

What has not changed since then?

The amount of land.

This is the same problem that we are having in my little area. I believe in 2004, this area was the first if not one of the first as a MSA to have the median transactions be over 1mm on a property. Today it is 2.5mm. What has changed? We have NO MORE land to build on. At BEST, there are two golf courses that can be built on. One is owned by the city and the other is commercial. A dying mall wants to level themselves and put up APARTMENTS, not houses, apartments. More people want to live here than people want to sell at a lower price.

IMO, we need to look at the geographic demands of the person. Why does that person want to live in X place? Is it employment? Is it family? IMO, probably the top two and encompass 90% of the choices. Is it weather? What are the ranked reasons why they want to be there? Then, plan accordingly.

I threw a dart at a map and hit Keokuk, Iowa. There are 10k people there. Why would anyone want to live there? The weather looks to suck. The natural disaster situation is REAL with the MS river flooding. The jobs all revolve around farming and supporting farming. What would it take to get people to want to move there?

For us, we often consider moving. It's not that we do not like it here. We love it here. My wife is a gemini and uses that as justification for wanting constant change. What would we look for? For me, I could not be in the boon docks and have to deal with satellite internet. I am excited like a MoFo about utopia fiber in Utah where I can get a 10g line for $150 a month. That feature means a LOT to me. Now, are there jobs there? Nominal and IMO that is the issue.

Detroit became what it is because of the car industry. Silicon Valley became what it is because of technology. Parts of TX became what it is because of Oil. LA became what it is because of the film industry which used the weather and geography as their requirements. NY is financial. It goes on and on.

IMO for housing prices to become a lot less different, we need to find ways to have these other cities that are less populated have greater employment reasons. This is why I respect those cities that were PAYING people to move there. It makes sense. We need some industries to pop up in other locations. What they are, well, that is above my pay grade. Perhaps if Keokuk was able to secure Foxconn to put in facilities to employ 50k people that would benefit that area. I know shit like that worked in Alabama, TN, SC for car makers :)

Summerville, SC, Us

@8, we agree on a lot more than we disagree I think.

Phoenix, AZ, Us

"At least they had a better shot at the so-called American dream. In my father's era, I believe the retirement age was 55 and buying property was much easier on a meager income."

Not for Social Security, which was 65 for full benefits.

But, yes, housing - the price of which is artificially inflated by scarcity, sometimes due to poor city planning, sometimes by things like REITs, private equity groups, and the short term rental market - used to be more affordable, even though interest rates were often about what they are nw.

Emeryville, CA, Us

"At least they had a better shot at the so-called American dream. In my father's era, I believe the retirement age was 55 and buying property was much easier on a meager income."

--------------------------

That's an interesting take. I haven't done the precise math in my family's case, and I'm sure everyone's situation is different, I was envious of my Father being able to afford property at his income, conversely, when I showed him a bonus check of mine at 21 years old, he nearly fainted, as he stated that the amount exceeded 2 years of his annual salary. I still had to scrimp and work my ass off with multiple jobs (yes, the Jamaican stereotype) to get a down payment on my starter home. It's a fascinating generational tradeoff.

Emeryville, CA, Us

"Oh yeah... and no kids. So that was a couple million we never had to spend"

------------

My God. The amount of $ I'd have now if I didn't have kids. Lol

mayhem8Veteran
Auburn, NH, Us

8inch - "Our great grandparents were sold that American Dream Bullshit."

At least they had a better shot at the so-called American dream. In my father's era, I believe the retirement age was 55 and buying property was much easier on a meager income.

8inchcableVeteran
Milwaukee, WI, Us

Flip,

Our great grandparents were sold that American Dream Bullshit.

It's the lie that just won't die.

The governments need patriotic, hard-working tax payers.

Santa Barbara, CA, Us

@8inch

I just saw this: compcalculator.myflorida. com

That is the State of Florida trying to sell you on how much your true compensation is to entice you to work for them. It is their 'marketing' tool.

IMO, that is fucked up. They are trying to sell what they are paying as if it is something that their competitors in the employment game are not.

Argh.

Santa Barbara, CA, Us

@Mayhem

What you described, unfortunately, is the math problem.

As I mentioned, the house I tried to buy in 1995, if I had just taken that money, I would have gotten over 10% return. The house, it had a 7.25% increase in value yearly.

The average wage in 1995 in Florida was probably 30-35k. The average wage today in Florida is probably 60k. So at best, wages have increased 2x over that same time frame, whereas the house is up 6x.

One, or a combination of both, need to occur. Wages need to increase or house pricing needs to go down.

mayhem8Veteran
Auburn, NH, Us

The problem I see with renting and "spending/investing the difference" vs buying is that in a number of cases, the taxes/mortgage are cheaper than renting. The home does give you more responsiblity though.

Timing matters too. We bought our home in 1993 for $100K, probably put $150K into it over the years, and now it's worth ~$750K. With what houses cost now vs what salaries are doing, it's likely a lot harder to do the equivilent for younger people starting their careers these days. Housing costs are so high that they're locking people out of the market.

I do get that you should work to live and not live to work, and we are managing to have a LOT of fun while still living a modest lifestyle. It's not likely for me, but was watching a person on YouTube that still drives his own car and travels that world by himself and just turned 100 years old and is still going strong. Somewhere in the middle of that and where I am now is the 4th quarter, as 8inch put it. The tricky part is guessing when that is, but that's why fitness and health mean more than $$$.

San Luis Obispo, CA, Us

We both retired early.

Not because we were rich or had big money jobs... we have just lived a fairly humble lifestyle within our means.

Oh yeah... and no kids. So that was a couple million we never had to spend.

Summerville, SC, Us

@8, I like how you're thinking. Get out of The matrix, live your own life by your own rules, where you wanna live.

8inchcableVeteran
Milwaukee, WI, Us

All those places you named have a slower paced life and longer life expectancy.

The rat race and worrying about somebody stealing your cheese, that's the 20th and 21st century version of slavery. Saddle these ppl with debt, tax them to keep the infrastructure running and pay for city management and politicians' salaries.

Flash commercials on TV and the Internet of the fabulous life that everyone is living. So, you should too! You're gonna need named brand clothes and material objects. Newer car every 3-5 yrs and a new $700 cell phone every couple of yrs. Gotta commit and work 50-70 hrs a week sometimes.

Tell ppl they need 1-3 million on paper for retirement. Don't count on Social Security and Socialism, so work til You're 65, 68 or 72 yrs old.

Guess what? You're not guaranteed 68. And you might miss a chance to live free or travel the world because you're so busy working for that $500-800k McMansion.

Santa Barbara, CA, Us

@8inch

IMO, you nailed it.

Here is something that may fuck with your head . . .

You may have 20-25 summers left.

Once you start thinking that way, it puts things in perspective. I am not concerned about dying with money in the bank. I am not concerned about leaving an inheritance to my offspring. I am concerned with the amount of time that I have left where I can actually do things. I realize that my body will decay and my ability to do things will end. Because of that, I live for today because I have no guarantee that tomorrow exists.

In November we are going on a trip through the south of France, then hoping on a cruise that goes through 3 stops in Italy, then Malta, then Barcelona. We are considering staying another 10 days to start looking at places. I'd be happy living outside Lisbon. I'd be happy living in the south of France. I'd be happy living in Bruge. I'd be happy living in Hamburg. Now, it's time to see if my wife is as well :)

8inchcableVeteran
Milwaukee, WI, Us

Starting from scratch in another country with $4,500 to 6,000 per month is very doable.

The idea of working til 65 or 68 is so crazy to me.

I really want to cash in the chips at 57. I could live like a gypsy for the last 1-20 yrs of life after 57.

If I make it to 77, find a small country home with a rocking chair, couch and fridge on the front porch or back yard near a lake or ocean.

That's winning.

8inchcableVeteran
Milwaukee, WI, Us

As the others have spoken about their previous homes and the ones they passed up on, it's speculation.

You gotta live somewhere.... yes.

But, I think America puts more emphasis on a house as an investment than it being a home that you enjoy.

I used to go into smaller houses and apartments (some rentals some were owned) in a few countries in Europe. I didn't understand how ppl would be content or enjoy living in 700-1500 sq feet with little or no yard. Smaller house, smaller car, have more money, less junk to clutter and travel more.

Now I understand.....

8inchcableVeteran
Milwaukee, WI, Us

I swear, there are some greedy, ignorant people out there in the lender biz. They talk to you like one of the two ppl on the phone is crazy.

Long story short, I wanted to borrow 80K with a current mortgage of $117k at 3.625%.

Valued between $330-$358k..... take the low end cuz it needs maintenance. Call it $320k, borrow 80 (on top of $117k) plus closing, use even number of $200k.

Borrowed HIGHER, at 6.5% for 360 months of $1,900 (est mortgage) = $684k. With a $1,900 mortgage plus utilities, food, gas, etc, I'd probably have to work til I'm 65-68 yrs. Or live on a budget and less to invest and save.

I would be 82 yrs old, sell at 600-650k (on the low end). So, "investing" $684k plus upkeep over 30 yrs to "live inside my investmen". To later walk away with $600-650k. I could have paid myself or invested that $684k over those 30 yrs, while paying rent somewhere. Maybe even pulling some out here and there.

I'd be 82 yrs old, with $600-650k. What the fuck am I going to do with that money at 82?? Fly to Asia and get a 30 yr old wife and die 1-2 yrs later?

If I make 82. Basically anchored to a house for the next 20-30 yrs to make a profit. Bullshit.

Fuck that. I'm living now. To retire at 57, cash out with $275-350k. Stretch that over 15 yrs plus my other income, because I don't plan on living lavish at 72. It's the 4th quarter. I'm spending my money in the first 3 quarters and let Uncle Sam and Social Security and savings to play the 4th quarter.

The game is rigged!

Anacortes, WA, Us

I would not fight minimum wages per se - with some exceptions - though I think they are susceptible to political manipulation. One change I would make would be an under 18 sub minimum wage. The reasons for employing youth are often more public spirited than economic. It's often more about teaching than work. Another is tipped wages, particularly in the current era where it practically takes an act of congress to change the "default" tip from 18% to the generally provided options of 20%, 22% or 25%. Or"Press Control/Shift/Alt/Delete/Enter to select a custom amount". Yeah, that's income, pure and simple.

What really bugs me is micro meddling like the fast food exception which just distorts the labor market. I think it's also a distortion, at least for certain regions, when neighboring States have wide disparities.

Orchard Beach, MD, Us

@fun4

The EAE is pretty sweet. I haven’t had it long enough to tell you my fender tube is going to get any dust. I wish I could say that I was playing as much as I have in the past. I did have a pretty good evening while in Florida 2 weeks ago. We spent the Weekend at Anna Maria Island with my partner & Aaron Lewis and his family and Struggle Jennings hung out for a bit. Got in a couple of hours of shit storming and playing. Aaron a riot to hang around with and you won’t loose a step with how he feels about this country right now. But it was a fun trip. We were staying just down from Ocala at The villages. We did get to the Rock the Country 2 day Kid Rock deal. It was PACKED. We just went Saturday as we had to get the house closed down and packed for our early morning flight Monday back to Northern CA. And it’s a good thing because the day after we left, it has poured down flooding ever since..

Richards, TX

I spent some time in Nashville …..never again. But went to the Gibson Garage and bought a Slash J45 ….I guess I will never grow up . I also have an EAE acoustic amp on order . How do you like their stuff made in USA .