All Things Economic

LOL.

You don't understand how polls are constructed or analyzed.

Most people don't.

From the local CBS affiliate

"Taking the historic travel numbers from MMGY and adding the current economic trends equals AAA's projections."

Is the methodology of using data from a for profit agency that specializes in marketing for the travel industry really any more accurate than asking 2500 likely voters? It sounds like a total guessing game to me. One that could be tainted by profit motives.

According to AAA, the average gas price today is $3.509 vs $3.719 for July 2023.

~Scamp

Yes, a 2500 person "likely voter" sampling. Which is much larger than the typical sampling used for political polling, which people love to believe as 100% fact, and report on regularly.

"But when the local newscasts report that a majority of people surveyed can't afford a vacation, and the same thing is reported by MSN (hardly a neo-con Biden hating network), I will take notice."

Sure, take notice, but before you take careful notice of something, look into the facts surrounding it. So, AAA was expecting record travel over the 4th, airlines reported record travel over the Memorial Day weekend, and TSA tracking shows record travel over time.

And you're contrasting "if it bleeds it leads" reporting on a poll that was confined to 2500 people, where the only thing you know about their methodology is that everyone polled self-identified as a likely voter.

One of these things is far less reliable than the others, so factor that in instead of coming to the conclusion that the reporting is somehow widely true.

Yes, more people than ever are using food banks - it's true here too - because it's a valid way to stretch your grocery budget and far more accessible than applying for government benefits, even if you don't live in a state that appears to hate poor people.

Agree DB we too are in a good place financially.. but that still does not lessen the effect of how much everything has gone UP!!! No matter what side you are on.. its in your face and YES we go shopping every week for all sorts of stuff!

Feel bad for our kids!!!

I am also thankful that my 4 brothers and sisters and I , as well as most of our children and their families, are able to go on a family Caribbean cruise next February.

However, just because we are so fortunate, I'm not going to automatically assume things are that good all over.

On the other side of the coin, the food shelf that I volunteer at is experiencing record numbers of people coming in for groceries. Many new faces that I have never seen before, including people I have known since High School that I would have never expected to be looking for relief.

Again, that doesn't make me automatically assume that things are tough all over.

But when the local newscasts report that a majority of people surveyed can't afford a vacation, and the same thing is reported by MSN (hardly a neo-con Biden hating network), I will take notice.

"DB, how many pages of good economic news articles do you skip over until you find one that suits your narrative?
Will you be taking any vacations this year? I’m pretty sure the price of gas is lower than last year when you drove to Florida, right?"

Actually, I didn't know this was a deal until the local TV news stations reported it a couple days ago. I thought things were good this year.

And the price of gas today is about 40 cents per gallon higher than my last trip.

Fortunately, I am not one of the 53% saying they can't afford to take a vacation. And for that, I am thankful.

DB, how many pages of good economic news articles do you skip over until you find one that suits your narrative?

Will you be taking any vacations this year? I’m pretty sure the price of gas is lower than last year when you drove to Florida, right?

lol

~Scamp

Lies, damn lies, and statistics. TSA is reporting actual travel numbers, the can't go on vacation contingent is a group of 2500 likely voters and it's about their plans, not what they actually are doing. It could be that 7% will change their minds and go or that 12% will not.

Not that the numbers on the second are wrong, but you can't actually compare the two as equally reliable information, because they aren't.

"Then please explain why AAA expects 71 million people, a record, to travel on the 4th of July holiday...
Or maybe you can explain this chart, which shows year over year changes in TSA travel numbers...

htt ps://w ww.tsa.g ov/travel/passenger-volumes"

Ask these guys. They are the ones reporting it.

https: //www .msn . com /en-us/travel/news/about-half-of-americans-cant-afford-a-summer-vacation/ar-BB1ptyKh

The overturning of Chevron will do a lot for corporation's externalities.

The over turning of Chevron will have a huge for the good for our Economy.

No shortage of tourists on vacation around here.

There's not an empty hotel room or campsite anywhere.

Then please explain why AAA expects 71 million people, a record, to travel on the 4th of July holiday...

Or maybe you can explain this chart, which shows year over year changes in TSA travel numbers...

htt ps://w ww.tsa.g ov/travel/passenger-volumes

A local news station just reported that most Americans can't afford a summer vacation, due to inflationary pressures on their day to day lives.

I don't think that is a good sign.

When that happens all is good . Congrats tigger.

got the bigest % dividend from NatGrid aint america great

Bought my first T bills today. Went with 17 week maturity and the effective rate was 5.39%. This was done through TreasuryDirect, so I will still need to set up a broker account, but if they are still offering around 5% in 17 weeks, I'll likely roll it over for another 17 weeks.

This was money sitting in my checking account earning very little interest.

San Diego. I seem to remember it was maybe $1.99 a 12 pack.

This was about 1976.

I have a buddy that had almost a complete set of the pictograms. I just saw him yesterday. He has graduated to drinking Natty Light.

Or as he puts it, "If it is cold and wet, I will drink it..."

Oh shit, according to Wiki, the brand was revived in 2019. I haven't seen any on the shelves...

Wow! Where dd you grow up TBR?

Lucky Lager was the first beer I ever tasted. After watching all the commercials I was psyched. And then stunned at how horrible it tasted. But then, it was Lucky Lager. Didn't help that my Dad's practice was to keep it in the pantry closet and then serve it for lunch...over ice.

Yecchh! Thanks for the memories!

PS: Just looked it up. Actually started in San Francisco. I always thought it was a second label of Olympia, kind of like Rheinlander to Rainier. I guess I thought that because G Heileman owned them all at one point. It was so bad I always assumed it had to be local. For some reason it was popular in BC too. The caps were definitely the best part.

When I was a teenager there was Lucky Lager. They had pictograms on the inside of the bottle caps to distract you from the shitty tasting beer...

kalliks is really good

"Going to a lesser quality beer than I'm accustomed to would be hard though!"
There is a lesser quality beer than Natty Light?

I dont believe it."

Red White and Blue, Pfeiffers, Buckhorn

PBR is up 5%