All Things Economic

indexes went up due to VP choice...............

“I've begun to rotate my portfolio positions in anticipation of a change in administration…”

Four months is still plenty of time for a certain candidate to shoot himself in the foot. Figuratively speaking, of course. lol

~Scamp

I've begun to rotate my portfolio positions in anticipation of a change in administration, and a cut in rates. Less emphasis on the MAG 7's. Not as much equity in big tech.

Someonescoming - I get what reprocity is. I think you got the sentiment of what I was trying to say with, "The Thais could never understand why one would pay more for a product; because it had an Aligator, YSL. or Coach emblem.".

In this case that emblem would be "Made in the USA". Even WITH the implied higher quality, that will only go so far. Adding our labor costs to the higher standards/materials would price us out of many markets, even if we did have reprocity.

FWIW - I do agree that we should have reprocity and return in kind the lack of it from other countries when it comes to imports, unless it is our best interests somehow to allow those imports anyway.

"if wind power is so important then why are over half the windturbines i see are shut down and not generation squat?????"

I think it has to do with demand. When the demand is higher, more turbines are operating. When the demand drops, so does the amount of generation.

When traveling through Iowa, I go right past a couple wind farms. Sometimes there are less than half of the windmills turning, and sometimes they are all spinning.

It’s funny how things change ,when I was a kid my dad would buy tools if it said made in Japan he would throw it back. I remember him driving all over town trying to purchase a transistor radio not made in Japan. He bought a GE transistor radio for 16.00 probably made in Japan . But the ones saying made in Japan were like 6.00. When we were in Thailand my wife was buying Coach purses copies of course for 12.00 back here they are several hundred dollars. We have too many regulations and controls compared to other countries. If there weren’t so many regulations and controls on oil a gallon of gasoline would cost maybe 1.00 . My first job out of school was with NCR most never hear of NCR . They were one of the seven dwarfs . You had IBM and seven competitors . But they were one of the first come up with the computer point of sale . I remember running around saying wow , we are running 6% profits …A company official told me to shut up people don’t like to hear about large profits . Today net profits are off the charts . But so are our 401ks

The Consumer Price Index, a measurement of the average change in prices for a commonly purchased basket of goods and services, dropped 0.1% from May, which helped to slow the annual rate of inflation to 3% from 3.3% in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest report.

Falling gas prices as well as a drop in new and used car prices helped to usher in the first month-on-month decline since May 2020, BLS data showed. On an annual basis, consumer prices are increasing at their slowest pace since June 2023, matching the lowest annual rate since early 2021.

The better-than-expected inflation report further bolstered hopes that a Federal Reserve rate cut could come sooner than later and help make borrowing money less expensive. Interest rates have been planted for months at a 23-year high as a result of the central bank’s inflation-fighting campaign.

The US continues to lead the world in recovery from the pandemic induced economic crisis.

~Scamp

"if wind power is so important then why are over half the windturbines i see are shut down and not generation squat?????"

Don Quixote rides again?

There are a number of wind farms around here. The only turbine I ever see that is not turning is a privately owned 1 servicing 1 home about 10 miles away from us. That's one of the oldest turbines around, but I have no idea why it's seldom turning.

More and more turbines are being erected around here- and solar "farms". A coal burning plant that shut down a couple of years ago has been replaced by a solar farm, and more wind turbines are beginning to pop up in that area. I counted 18 turbines last time I was by there- all turning.

Someonescoming - "What foreign countries, especially our adversaries, want and need most is access to US markets, and they are certainly getting it ... without reciprocity."

Even if we had reciprocity, aside from doing what China does and leveraging cheap labor, how do we compete? Our high domestic labor costs price us out of the market for many of the common products we buy. US people complain that jobs are leaving the US, but people are only willing to accept a certain upcharge due to premium labor costs.

Someonescoming - Not too surprising. Seems a lot of US companies make use of Mexican labor due to proximity to the US and because the US labor force, especially for manufacturing, has priced itself out of the market comparatively speaking.

Ironically, many don't want Mexican workers in the US, but they want cheap labor, unless THEY are the labor being replaced ;-) I don't see how you can have it both ways.

Even with cheap Chinese labor costs, I'd think the shipping costs take a good bite out of profits too. I have no way to compare, but it might be even cheaper for China to use Mexican labor if building products for the US.

Again, my understanding is that they'll still get hit with high tariffs to bring that product into the US though.

if wind power is so important then why are over half the windturbines i see are shut down and not generation squat?????

"It sounded as though in this case, they could do that anyway even with the tariffs if they really wanted to."

Chinese labor costs are often kept low with child, prisoner, and slave labor. Combine that with predatory subsidies from the Chinese government and your product will inevitably do well against the competition, with the greatest profits coming from where the tariffs are lowest. Basic business model: easy pickings first.

"If one can make decent money by recycling the stuff people are throwing away, that would be a win/win."

There's a local organization that is tackling textile waste on a small scale. They used to have a bin outside the shop for clothing that wouldn't meet thrift store standards, but were inundated, so now they limit individual donations and collect unsold items from consignment stores and the like.

Fabric artists are their market and they sell vintage patterns, fabric, upcycled clothing, notions, etc.

They're a non-profit, but other niche upcyclers aren't and there's certainly a market for all things kept out of landfills.

"Sometimes you have to turn the heat on- it occasionally gets a little chilly around here in December and January."

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One night last winter the heater came on and nearly scared the shit out of me. Woke me up out of a sound sleep. I rarely hear it come on. Lol

GGMM - FWIW - The Youtube I watched did mention these EVs were subsidised by the Chinese government, so I see why the tariffs are needed in this case. Otherwise, they could come in and destroy the local competition and then remove their subsidies.

It sounded as though in this case, they could do that anyway even with the tariffs if they really wanted to. The purpose for businesses is to make a profit, and they can more easily do that now in other markets without having to jump through as many hoops. With the tariffs and changes needed for the US, this car would go from $11K to about $15K. According to the Youtube, roughly 25% of that increase was coming from tariffs.

This is of course separate from the disposable society we've become and are perpetuating, and it's impact on both the economy and the planet. Increasingly the economy and the planet seem to be more at odds with each other. Perhaps the solution is on the recycling end. There again, the US seems to be behind in that effort compared to a number of other countries, but it is getting more traction in the US.

If one can make decent money by recycling the stuff people are throwing away, that would be a win/win. Apparently it's easier said than done, otherwise more people would be doing it. If I were ever to start my own business this late in the game, it is definitely an area that interests me.

"Was watching a YouTube about a well built $11K Chinese EV that would likely do a number on US car makers if imported to the US but, to a certain degree, high tariffs are keeping it out of the US market."

I'm generally inclined towards free market capitalism (although I want economic unions, which can smooth out costs of labor and raw materials in the right configuration), but tariffs are an efficient counter to some pretty aggressive subsidies that China is offering to its EV sector.

As a consumer, you want low prices. As a country, the US has an interest in offsetting predatory economic policies in the exports of other countries.

I'll sell you a house for a million. I guarantee it will be bigger, you have to decide if it's in a better neighborhood though.

Sometimes you have to turn the heat on- it occasionally gets a little chilly around here in December and January.

Was watching a YouTube about a well built $11K Chinese EV that would likely do a number on US car makers if imported to the US but, to a certain degree, high tariffs are keeping it out of the US market. I say "to a certain degree" because they could still be competive even with the tariffs, but I can see a company picking lower hanging fruit by working less restrictive foreign markets to more easily get higher profit margins.

Capitalism is supposed to be about competition and having the best products with the best prices dominate the market, but when it comes to cars, that doesn't seem to be the case. Before someone brings up "cost of labor", my understanding is that if a US car maker decides to use Mexican labor to cut costs, the tariffs would be less for that car than a Chinese manufacturer using Mexican labor and bringing those cars into the US.

I know there is likely a lot more to it than that, but it just feels like a reason we can't have nice things that are reasonably priced. Also, things in general are made to be more disposable rather that being fixed, so even more stuff winds up in landfills so manufacturers can make more money through planned obsolence.

Anyone still remember when TVs could be repaired? How about shoes, and who bothers trying to fix clothes anymore? Now most people just replace the whole item when it breaks, and many times this is by design. This is now the norm for many products that were once repaired. Cars are an exception to a degree, but more and more the repairs involve stupidly expensive assemblies that, when added to the crazy labor costs, make it more likely to junk a car sooner rather than later and further contribute to landfills. How does this all end well, or even just stablize?

People tell themselves things like cars are just too complicated, so at one point I thought education played a major role in this trend, yet one can find out how to do just about anything these days on Youtube. It's way more than just lack of education driving this trend.

"That's nuts on the house pricing"

I always wanted a million dollar house. I just thought it would be bigger and in a nicer neighborhood.

That's nuts on the house pricing

"The crappy 1000 sq ft house I grew up in (on the bad side) is only worth 1.2 million now."
"Ours was 1400 square feet and last time I checked it had an estimated worth of nearly 1.5M. It was a shitty house in a shitty neighborhood"

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I never thought 'starter homes' would average 1.5M, and increasing. It's getting to the point that anything under $2M will be suspect.

"The crappy 1000 sq ft house I grew up in (on the bad side) is only worth 1.2 million now."

Ours was 1400 square feet and last time I checked it had an estimated worth of nearly 1.5M. It was a shitty house in a shitty neighborhood that got sun three or four days a year. You at least got the good weather. ;)

patroleo brazillio jus paid a 19.97% dividend :)

"Tom Brady's neighbor? ;-)"

He grew up in the nice part of town west of El Camino Real.

The crappy 1000 sq ft house I grew up in (on the bad side) is only worth 1.2 million now.

"I grew up in San Mateo east of the Bayshore freeway"

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Tom Brady's neighbor? ;-).

I spent a lot of time on 101, when working on my first contact. SFO to Moffett Field, Redwood City, etc.