Science

If one makes 30 attempts at something with a 1 in 15 (0.06666667) probability, the average expected outcome is 2. This is what I was taking Wayne's statement to mean.

If you want to demonstrate this, open a blank Excel.

In A1 through A31, enter the numbers 0 through 30. This is the # of times something can happen out of the 30.

In B1 type:

=BINOM.DIST(A1,(MAX(A:A),0.0666666667,FALSE)

Drag the formula down. This is the probability of that number of hits occurring out of 30 attempts. 12.6% of 0 hits, 27.0% of 1 hit, 28.0% 2 hits, etc.

In cell C1 type SUMPRODUCT(B:B,A:A). This is the weighted average of all expected outcomes.

The answer is 2. Yes, it'll only actually BE 2 28% of the time, but that's the average outcome.

Given that I built in the ability to extend the columns indefinitely, you can drag it down to any #of attempts you like. The expected average outcome will always be 1/15 times the number of attempts.

<p>ggmm,</p>

<p>Then give me your answer in the X times per month format.</p>

<p>On average how many times will I win per month (30 days)?</p>

"Multiple that time 15 and it is about 1 (Once every 15 days). Multiple it by 30 and it is about 2 (twice out of 30 days)."

You really need to watch Ma and Pa Kettle do math, because that's what you're doing here. A 1 in 15 probability does not lead to twice in 30 days, even if you're just approximating. Because that's not how probability works.

What you're doing is a variation of the gambler's fallacy, the core (but wrongheaded) belief that fuels casino profits.

<p>ggmm,</p>

<p>It is on page 4 in the Just Wondering thread in Open forum. This is what you said:</p>

<p>"<span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:open sans,sans-serif; font-size:14px">This is you not understanding probability and consequently failing the coin flip test. Because a 1-15 chance is a one in 15 chance each day, not a probability of two wins in 30 days. Day one you have a 1-15 chance, day two you have a 1-15 chance, day three you have a 1-15 chance, day four you have a 1-15 chance, ad infinitum. The probability of a string of 100 wins in a row is lower than that of one win, but it's not a straight line calculation and the probability of winning each day's game is still 1 in 15, no matter how many days you play."</span></p>

<p><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:open sans,sans-serif; font-size:14px">And that works out to twice a month on average. So ggmm, you agreed with me. It is right there in your post. You have a 1 in 15 chance per day to win. One day does not depend on the next. 1/15 is .066667 chance. Multiple that time 15 and it is about 1 (Once every 15 days). Multiple it by 30 and it is about 2 (twice out of 30 days). </span></p>

<p><font color="#000000" face="open sans, sans-serif"><span style="font-size:14px">Flip a fair coin every day and about half the days will be heads, so on average you get 15 heads every 30 days.</span></font></p>

Lost , that one ….Trust the science , Trust the science.

Travelers.. most have lost that one!

No, it's not right, because that's not how probability works.

Several of us explained why you were wrong and how probability does work (and it's been twice in the however many years I've been posting here, although the first time was more a glancing blow) and I'm not engaging in another futile discussion.

@Wayne - "if there is a 1 in 15 chance of something happening and you get one chance a day to try, on average that thing will happen about twice a month. Is that not right?"

One must be careful with statistics and the context in how they are delivered. Statistically, the average American has one testicle.

<p>"<span style="background-color:rgb(230, 230, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:open sans,sans-serif; font-size:14px">He also doesn't understand probability, whilst vehemently insisting he does."</span></p>

<p>I remember that discussion. I was absolutely right. </p>

<p>I posted that if there is a 1 in 15 chance of something happening and you get one chance a day to try, on average that thing will happen about twice a month. Is that not right? </p>

<p>"<span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:open sans,sans-serif; font-size:14px">As for Paris - you can't "prove" Paris exists. But there seems to be an awful lot of evidence that it does."</span></p>

<p><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:open sans,sans-serif; font-size:14px">Exactly! That is what I am trying to say. I also believe Paris exists. But I know I am not going to convince anyone online that it exists (if they are arguing that it doesn't), but yet strangers all over the internet argue and fight about such things just like they do here. I've been guilty of that too from time to time. Just something that fascinates me and I wish I understood it better since sometimes it is a part of my job. The debate becomes too heated and they come to me and want me to do something about it. </span></p>

Good thing we Have MM to tell us how everything actually is.

My son says Paris is a shithole.

"I thought Wayne was just making a funny."

No. Or if that's the way your humor trends, then the answer is "not intentionally." He also doesn't understand probability, whilst vehemently insisting he does. The internet is full of people who believe their understanding is superior (it's like Lake Woebegone in that way) and back up their own flawed thinking with YouTube or recursive "logic." They're impenetrable unless they meet the phenomenon in person, at which point they announce it as if it's an entirely novel concept.

Btw formal proof of 1+1=2 (and is thus the basis for every addition, including 2+2=4) exists. One of the most famous versions is that contained within Principia Mathematica.

As for Paris - you can't "prove" Paris exists. But there seems to be an awful lot of evidence that it does. If you want anyone to take a claim that it doesn't seriously, you're going to have to somehow overcome all that evidence in a convincing way. Otherwise, you'll be rightfully laughed at.

“I thought Wayne was just making a funny.”

We thought QAnon was hilarious until they were shitting in the halls of the Capitol.

I thought Wayne was just making a funny.

"So paying for something means it exists?"

Wayne, I can't really tell if you really are that dense, or you don't believe what you are saying and just want to be a contrarian.

There are thousands of things per day that you do that you haven't done the research on.

Have you checked all of the food you eat to make sure it won't kill you? Or your clothes?

Our lives are full of taking other peoples words for things...

I can't imagine living my life in such a way that I wasn't sure cars existed until I walked out and saw mine in the driveway.

"So paying for something means it exists?"

No, the "Bon voyage" part assumed you'd purchase a ticket, get on an airplane, fly to Paris and see for yourself. (Does someone dress you in the morning?)

Unless some religious fanatic on the airplane to Paris decides to prove Allah exists and takes everyone with him by also proving various other scientific theories regarding things that blow up and gravity in the process. in which case you will have your own proof that Allah exists and maybe even that there are 7 virgins waiting for certain people.

You could prove I'm immortal by upgrading us to an unlimited membership. It's not rocket science, you have to have faith and trust me on this.

I’m telling you, it’s a kink.

Paris is real. You should see it sometime.

<p>"<span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:open sans,sans-serif; font-size:14px">I just looked, you can get airfare from FL to Paris for $755."</span></p>

<p><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:open sans,sans-serif; font-size:14px">So paying for something means it exists?</span></p>

<p><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:open sans,sans-serif; font-size:14px">I can buy a perpetual motion machine from Amazon for about $45 right now.</span></p>

"Like this? youtube. com/watch?v=Bfq5kju627c"

Well, if nothing else, it proves the futility of arguing with people who are very, very certain and even more wrong than certain.

"I've never been to Paris, so how can I prove it exists?"

I just looked, you can get airfare from FL to Paris for $755.

Bon voyage!

“ If I were to drop a feather and a dime in a vacuum and accurately document their simultaneous fall in accordance with Newton's gravitational theory, this is not "proof". It's supporting evidence. I wouldn't say it "proves" gravity; I'd say it demonstrates it.”

I’ve watched that experiment, but it was a feather and a bowling ball. Both hit the ground at the same time. It’s was fascinating. If they didn’t, we’d have to revise our view of physics.

When was the last time a religion was revised because of new evidence? Jews still celebrate Passover despite the fact that there’s no evidence that Israelites were ever held in large numbers as slaves in Egypt. On the contrary, all the evidence shows that they were just one of many Canaanite tribes who always lived in Judea. The Egyptians kept detailed records, and none of those records show a massive die-off of livestock and first born children or plagues of frogs. No evidence has ever been found in the Sinai of a mass migration of hundreds of thousands of people wandering for 40 years across a stretch of land you could walk across in a week. Even the Israeli Ministry of Antiquities says the Exodus is a myth. It’s doesn’t change the religion though.