DNLB
"$15 per hour minimum wages? Perfect!
The concept that artificially inflating the direct labor costs by 50% will suddenly enable the people earning minimum wage to increase their spending directly proportional to the "raise" is a fallacy. One immediate effect is that they will now pay taxes on $30 per year instead of $20k per year. Another is that their cost of living is going to increase by the same 50%."
No one said it would be "direct proportional". Sure, they have to pay 7.5% FICA and may get with with 10% or 12% income tax... The bigger hit is likely the loss of medicaid, earned income tax credit, food stamps, section 8 housing and other such government handouts.
So let's say the $15 minimum wage, $7 extra an hour, $15K a year is really only a net increase of $5K in spendable income. Well, then that is still an extra $5K. That is still more money getting spend into the economy.
And, your premise that cost of living increases proportional to increase in the minimum wage is destroyed by a look at history. 1960 to 1968 the minimum wage went from inflation adjusted $8 to inflation adjusted $12 (all time high). Most of those years were we hitting 1% inflation. We were also hitting 6% GDP growth rates in those years. Holding the minimum wage increases below inflation in the 1970s didn't suppress inflation.
Studies from around the world have shown that raising the minimum wage doesn't become a driver of inflation until you get to about 2/3rds of median wage (about $20) so about $15. Much of that is because, as I pointed out above, a fair portion of the increase does not directly translate into additional spendable income, but instead reduces government spending used to keep poor people spending.
If you really want people to get off the government dole, raise the minimum wage!
Many states have now increased the minimum wage well above the federal level, including the very Republican Arizona, which is at $11, heading to $12 next year. Yes, the jumps in minimum wage had had some effect on cost of goods, but not the 30-40% the minimum wage increased. AZ cost of living had been increasing slightly below the national average and now is rising like 0.1% a year above national average... So, maybe 0.2%, but it is hard to separate our housing shortage driving rents from other factors such as minimum wage.
One thing for sure since raising the minimum wage is the AZ state budget is MUCH improved.
As for its effect on unemployment, there was basically no change in the unemployment rate, but a huge jump in the work force. People that were unwilling to work (like stay at home moms where the cost of daycare didn't justify an $8.50 job) were suddenly looking for, and able to find work, at $11 and $12. We can clearly see the pop in the workforce size the quarter the minimum wage goes up. Some have argued that is a switch of people working under the table switching to reported job.. okay, but that still gets them off the dole and paying taxes.