All Things Economic

Yes amazing what happens when a true business man runs our country. Now let the nay sayers bash the fack things are better.

As I approach my retirement and fully expect spending to tighten up in general in this economy, it dawns on me that people like me (retiring boomers) will likely be among the population helping to drive the economy. What I mean by that is that, at retirement, people should be switching from "savings" mode to "spending" mode. I realize not everyone planned well for retirement, but people in my position will be looking to spend more money in certain areas like travel/entertainment.

The other thought that entered my mind is that, as a group, we are among the highest % of voters. If shit starts costing us significantly more money, these same people as a group are very likely to vote in favor of their wallet, which is against strategies/policies that cost us more (i.e. tariffs, healthcare, energy, etc).

They do have AC/DC condensers so you can direct feed them with DC from the panels. I'd think most solar installations would have either an inverter or micro-inverters.

I looked at an AC/DC mini split unit and it did say it had a "PV module". Wouldn't be surprised if this is just a micro inverter that allows them to refer to this as an AC/DV unit. In fact, this would make sense as it allows them to use the same AC unit and make it a DC unit by simply adding the "PV module".

As for an economic topic, my Army doctor daughter got a paycheck. Apparently there was this unspent pool of money the pentagon had that was reallocated for this? Whatever the case, she got a paycheck. I saw something where ChatGPT predicted the shutdown would end by Nov 3rd, mainly because neither side can afford for this to continue. Will be interesting to see if it's even close.

I'm assuming it was a DC version

I would think that any mini split could run off solar, given enough solar capacity.

I've seen mini splits that run off solar. Might be good for me here in summer to cool the main part of the house. Need to look into it

Even with the high electric rates, the mini split is working out well. This and the early spring is what I bought if for as far as heat is concerned.

And that's generating ~ 640kwh with solar

@mayhem. Damn...this house used ~ 2500kwh last month. But it's an all electric house basically. Only use propane for a backup generator and my grill.

Regarding electric bills, the delivery costs are now considerably more than half of our electric bill. We did have a pretty low month though at just over 600 Kwh for the last month. Most of the delivery costs are however tied to the supply consumption.

The value of the U.S. dollar against other currencies dropped 11% in the first half of this year, the biggest decline in more than 50 years.

Hmmm, what has happened since January that could have caused this?

~Scamp

Forbes:

Electricity bills have increased almost 10% since the start of the year and could rise another $170 per year for households by 2035 thanks to the repeal of clean energy tax credits, new tariffs and rapid expansion of electricity-hungry data centers to fuel a boom in artificial intelligence, multiple reports have shown.

ht tps://trib.al/yZBa5eE

~Scamp

"...they continue to shut down conventional coal and gas power plants, and standing up windmills and solar, both of which are significantly more expensive..."

The latter are only more expensive because the former already exist. Both the initial capital costs and the operating/maintenance costs of coal/gas are more expensive if considering new power generation. This is without even factoring in environmental impact/costs.

The MD/VA/DC area has a substantial amount of residental solar in place. A potential greener offset would be if residential solar installations implemented battery capacity to help eleviate the peak residental power demands when most people get home from work and solar is ramping down. This costs the individual residences that choose to do that, and that becomes a Return On Investment thing. The ROI is shorter if energy costs rise, however removing the federal tax incentive in 2026 IMHO is a step in the wrong direction.

Regardless of who's in office, the way the government tends to work is they decide on a deadline for something then wait till the last possible moment to do it. It doesn't surprise me that less green power gen options were shutdown before greener options were in place.

Also regardless, it is highly likely that at least some of the increases in residential rates are tied to the infrastrucure needed to support the data centers for AI and being passed onto the residential consumer under the guise of "you need this". EV and electrification (i.e. heatpumps) have increased the residential demand, but could have mostly been offset by widespread implementation of battery storage.

At the end of the day it is the large business driven demand due to data center requirements driving the major infrastructure investments, and it appears it will be a significant factor in residential rate increases. Just like taxes, the people with the least ability to pay can be hit with a disproportionate burden of the costs so that the super rich can pass the costs onto the class of people least able to afford it.

It seems one of the big drivers in certain areas for rising electricity costs is new data centers. The utilities can apparently charge about a 10% upcharge over their cost for building new infrastructure, so they are motivated to do so. Some are supposedly cutting back-room sweetheart deals to cater to the companies looking to build these new data centers.

The problem is that even though the residential demand is fairly flat, a disproportionate amount of the cost of this extra infrastructure is being spread across the residential class of consumer in certain states/areas because the claim is that the new infrastructure will benefit them in the future. The main thing driving the new infrastructure needs though is the data center specific demand.

There are also groups/lobbiests funded by the companies with the big data center needs to fight attempts to have utilities pass on the actual fair share of these costs to the companies driving up the demand. If true, sounds like yet another case of the little guy getting screwed in favor of big business. Protecting the wealth of the super rich is no big surprise here I suppose, but sucks nonetheless.

Great article in MarketWatch by Bret Arends sums up what I have been saying about the stockmarket for over two years. The only exception I would take is that the author is comparing the yield of the S&P to bonds based on projected rather than trailing earnings. Future earnings are a pro-frma forecast and subject to hype, wishful thinking and error. Past earnings are history.

https://www(dot)msn(dot)com/en-us/money/general/wall-street-is-ignoring-this-rising-threat-from-bonds-be-worried/ar-AA1LgRZ3?ocid=BingNewsSerp

spoonerpa - Had to have at least one sex related tie in for this topic ;-)

Did someone say "sexbot"? It may be the one thing I'll like about AI.

But what about all the workers?

We are about the same age, and I am sure you remember the stories about the average worker only working 20 hours a week, having all kinds of leisure time, etc.

Instead, all of the productivity gains have gone to the top of the food chain, and the average person hasn't seen their real wages go up in decades.

IMHO, all of the up and coming automation/robots are going to change the economic landscape as far as manufacturing and other manual labor costs are concerned. We aren't there yet, but it seems inevitable that there will be a point where robots and automation make most human labor obsolete.

Aside from just making things, automation can (and does) operate vehicles. It either can of will eventually be perfected and cheap enough to serve as wait staff, perform maintenance and cleaning jobs, harvest/process food, provide health care, perform guard duty/policing, and do a myriad of all the mundane things that people would prefer not to do, but that so many rely on for jobs. Hell, even the oldest profession (prostituton) will be getting a run for it's money, and even high tech isn't immune. AI is already streamlining code development and a number of other high tech functions.

Cheap labor is one thing, but how do you compete with something that can work 24/7, requires no breaks, and has no complaints? It is essentially like having slave labor where you purchase a worker but it's socially acceptable.

We're obviously not there yet but definitely headed in that direction. Much of this is already in play and will only be moreso as this sort of tech becomes faster, cheaper and more available. Many are already hard at work building the next gen of high tech slave labor, and then they themselves will eventually become obsolete in the job market.

With all of this in mind, it's no wonder some people want a societal collapse and complete reset, so that we can get back to saving "manufacturing jobs" ;-)

I am far from any sort of economics expert, but it does seem destined that countries wind up in the same place we're at. What I mean by that is that incomes rise and the labor costs drive up the costs of goods and services such that countries with cheaper labor become places that manufacturing moves to in order to stay competitive. At least this will be the case for the short term.

People in general do NOT want to pay higher prices for essentially the same goods, so companies are more or less forced to consider moving manufacturing out of the country just to stay in business, at least for now.

I also think manufacturing jobs are a dwindling source of work/jobs due to technology. Automation has already eliminated the need for a lot of manual labor and that trend is only going to get worse as robots become cheaper and more sophisticated. Then, it won't matter as much (from a job creation perspective) if something is made in the US or not, because human labor will be a smaller and smaller % of actually manufacturing anything.

As for tariffs, to me it seems that it is just shoveling sand against the tide. Talk of keeping "manufacturing" jobs in the US is trying to preserve a past way of life that is unrealistic. Not to mention that it's pissing off a LOT of people in the process.

One of the YouTubes I watched recently was about John Deere moving a fraction of their manufactuing to Mexico and the pissing contest that ensued about "manufacturing" job loss. This is one of those cases where this factory will have so much automation that there will essentially be few if any classic manufacturing jobs, regardless of where the factory is located.

"The late One Direction singer Liam Payne left behind money, property and possessions worth more than £24m ($32m) with no known will when he died last year, official records have shown."

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People, check your wills. Everyone needs a living will.

If you never updated your will, you ex-wife or hubby will be at your funeral, smiling.... heading to the bank.

Promises Made Promises Kept!

They are NUTS... they got nothing except doom and gloom and hate USA!

Fuck him. Not man enough to read something he can't agree with.

Second, why would someone really wish to refute any testimony from you when you twist shit around and refuse to accept any facts? Answer me that.

And BTW, it currently sits at:

WTI Crude 59.16 +0.95 +1.63% (14 Minutes Delay

Hey, I was just watching the economic news, and oil is at $56.39 a barrel. What is causing that?

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The answer is really easy to find as it has been discussed ad nauseum all month. Good luck with your search. I have the info if you fail to locate it.